2024 was the year gold solidified its role as the world’s ultimate safe-haven asset, rising almost 27% over the course of twelve months. However, that was just the warm-up act. 2025 has seen increasing economic pressures and uncertainty, caused in no small part by a raft of U.S trade tariffs imposed by President Trump; intensifying geopolitical instability, continued strong central bank buying, and an increasing retail investor base looking to gold as a store of value. This confluence of factors has propelled gold to unprecedented levels, seeing gains of 66% year to date (YTD).
Meanwhile, silver has well and truly stepped into the spotlight this year. Remarkably, the precious metal has even outshone gold’s stratospheric performance, increasing by over 115% since the start of the year.
Gold Making Headlines in 2025
Gold’s ascent has been extraordinary. After starting the year at just over $2,600, the precious metal breached $3,000 on March 14th, 2025, for the first time, amid Trump’s tariff chaos and a myriad of other geopolitical and economic issues. At this time, Solomon Global’s Managing Director, Paul Williams, said:
“Gold breaching the psychologically significant $3,000 level is a direct response to escalating trade tensions and the growing economic uncertainty that this brings. This isn’t just a knee-jerk reaction to individual policies; it’s investors seeking protection against systemic risk. Given the current momentum, gold at $3,500 by summer and $4,500 within the next year are in the realms of possibility.”
This seemingly ambitious first milestone was met when gold hit $3,500 in Q3 2025. The metal then surged past $4,000 on October 8th. This momentum now makes $4,500 an increasingly credible target for March 2026.
Forces Driving Gold’s Dramatic Rally
Gold’s extraordinary performance in 2025 has been driven by powerful forces, outlined below, that we expect will continue to dominate the market in 2026.
Central Banks Continue to Stockpile Gold
One of the defining themes of 2025 has been high-volume central bank gold buying as part of a diversification away from dollar-denominated assets. The World Gold Council reported that in Q3 of 2025, central bank buying remained elevated at 220t, 28% up on the prior quarteri. This spree continued into Q4 with central banks buying a net 53t in October 2025, 36% higher month on month and the largest monthly net demand year-to-date. ii
Retail Demand for Gold
The increased appetite for gold amongst retail investors has been well-documented in the press and is something Solomon Global has experienced firsthand. Gold bullion sales have more than doubled in a year; we saw a 122% year-on-year increase in October 2025 (the strongest month in the company’s history), compared with October 2024. This highlights how gold continues to stand out to investors as a stable, tax-efficient asset that offers refuge amid global and domestic economic turbulence.
‘Gold is For War’ – Geopolitical Tensions in 2025 and Further Conflict on the Horizon
Sadly, 2025 has been marked by escalations in the Ukraine-Russia conflict and ongoing issues in the Middle East. Whilst there is a pause in the latter conflict, the current peace brought about by Trump’s Gaza plan remains very fragile. Meanwhile, market commentator Clem Chambers is looking further ahead to the ‘pencilled-in’ 2027 date for a possible Chinese move on Taiwan as the next flash point set to create further geopolitical turmoil.
Economic Woes
The global economic backdrop remains fragile. Elevated sovereign and corporate debt levels are limiting governments’ room to manoeuvre while sticky inflation continues to erode real incomes and dampen consumer spending. Signs of slowing growth across major economies and a softer dollar have also added to market unease. In the U.S., interest rate cuts and signals of further cuts next year by Kevin Hassett, who is the overwhelming favourite to succeed Jerome Powell, have also been a boost to both silver and gold.
Solomon Global: Outlook for Gold in 2026
Gold’s extraordinary performance in 2025 has been driven by aggressive central bank accumulation, persistent geopolitical tension, and structural global economic fragilities. None of these drivers shows signs of abating.
Against this backdrop, we expect the precious metal to continue its upward trajectory and reach $5,000 per ounce by the end of 2026. This forecast is consistent with projections from major institutions such as Bank of America, HSBC, Goldman Sachs, and Société Générale (with JP Morgan even citing $5,200/$5,300); if gold were to repeat its 2025 performance, $5,000 would be a conservative outcome.
“The only credible obstacles to this would be a sudden resolution of global conflicts and a rapid reversal of the numerous economic pressures weighing on markets today. Unless we witness an unexpected outbreak of peace and a swift restoration of global economic harmony, the fundamental tailwinds behind gold remain firmly in place for 2026.”
Silver Shines in 2025
Silver has stepped out of the shadow of gold and has dominated headlines in the second half of 2025. While the silver market often mirrors gold’s moves, this year the metal’s dual role as a monetary asset and essential industrial material has resulted in it outperforming gold.
Silver surpassed the $50 mark for the first time on October 9th, 2025, breaching the previous all-time high recorded in early 1980. In the two months following this milestone, silver has increased a further 22%.
Retail Demand for Silver
The so-called ‘Devil’s Metal’ has enjoyed a phenomenal run, fuelled by strong investor appetite from both institutions and retail buyers. Many retail investors who have been priced out of gold have pivoted into silver. Although silver doesn’t share gold’s full safe-haven status, its combination of industrial utility and store-of-value credentials continues to attract investors seeking a degree of stability alongside greater upside potential. While gold is more institutionally driven and central bank-influenced, silver is more retail and industry-driven. That said, this year, some central banks have been making substantial purchases of silver, notably Russia, India, and Saudi Arabia.
Industrial Usage
Industrial demand for silver has accelerated sharply due to its strategic importance. Around 50-60% of the metal’s annual demand comes from electronics, green technologies (solar cells, electric vehicles, and advanced batteries all rely on silver), medical applications, and other manufacturing uses. It is a critical element for the exploding AI industry.
Silver Squeeze
There is a significant silver supply/demand mismatch, says Nick Cawley, contributing analyst for Solomon Global. Indeed, 2025 marks the fifth consecutive year that the silver market has been in a structural deficit – that is, demand outstripping supply. CNBC reports that in June 2022, London vaults held around 31,000 tonnes of silver, but by March 2025, that figure had dwindled to 22,000 tonnes. The Financial Times reported on October 14th that the level of available silver inventories in London was approaching historic lows, and there was a premium of between $1 and $2 for silver in London, compared with the price on the Comex futures in New York. There were even stories circulating about traders flying silver across from New York to London in the cargo holds of planes.
Solomon Global: Outlook for Silver
Speaking to CNBC when silver was approaching the $50 mark, Paul Williams said the surge was being fuelled by powerful, real-world forces rather than the speculation that drove its 1980 all-time high. He cited the deepening structural deficit, record industrial demand, accelerating investment in green technologies, and increasing retail demand as underlying drivers for silver, which showed no signs of fading.
“This suggests silver’s rally could not only surpass its all-time high but sustain it well into 2026. Despite its record level, silver remains cheap compared to gold. Given the current climate, a $100 silver price is certainly possible by the end of 2026.”
BNP Paribas Fortis shares this $100 view, stating that the underlying fundamentals for silver are arguably stronger and more sustainable than in any previous bull cycle.
The gold-silver ratio, although narrowing (it peaked at 104:1 in May 2025 and is now around 68:1), still suggests silver is undervalued relative to gold.
New Silver and Gold Highs Within Reach in 2026?
A combination of persistent inflation, mounting fiscal strains across leading economies, central banks showing no signs of stemming their gold-buying, and continued geopolitical uncertainty means the stage is firmly set for another momentous year for precious metals.
Solomon Global’s contributing analyst Nick Cawley, speaking to MarketWatch, underscores the technical robustness underpinning silver and gold as well as copper.
“The fundamental drivers powering these rallies remain firmly in place. A combination of persistent inflation concerns, US interest rate cuts, fears surrounding dollar devaluation, and substantial central bank gold purchases continues to underpin prices. These conditions show no signs of changing and should propel all three metals higher in the coming months.
Adding further support, the Federal Reserve has ended its Quantitative Tightening program – a policy that’s been draining liquidity since mid-2022. This shift toward looser monetary conditions provides additional tailwinds for precious and industrial metals.”
He adds that for investors with a longer-term horizon, any near-term pullbacks should be viewed as attractive entry opportunities rather than reasons for concern.
i https://www.gold.org/news-and-events/press-releases/gold-breaks-records-investors-seek-shelter-market-turbulence#:~:text=Central%20banks%20picked%20up%20the,more%20upside%20gains%20for%20gold.
ii https://www.gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus/2025/12/central-bank-gold-statistics-central-banks-ramp-gold-buying-october