Emerging Markets Currencies: Mexican Peso, South African Rand, Turkish Lira
From my perspective a tanking Peso, Rand or Lira is a storm in a teacup when compared to the concerns a few years back regarding the Single Currency. It also seems to be that much of the drama in terms of recent stock market turmoil was the build up to Wednesday’s $10bn Federal Reserve tapering of QE, rather than necessarily anyone thinking that the world would fall apart without the Turkish Lira! Nevertheless, these issues are clearly connected and therefore it is worth looking at the emerging currencies on a case by case basis.
Mexican Peso: Above 13 Targets 2013 Price Channel Top At 14
Rising 2013 price channel based at 13 Pesos
Likely bull flag near term above 20 day moving average at 13.21
Modest RSI at 56 suggests scope for further gains during February
South African Rand: Rising 2013 Price Channel Implies 12.20 Target
Rising 2013 price channel based at 50 day moving average level of 10.55
Break of initial January resistance at 11 – this now likely to act as new support
Extended RSI uptrend line from September should provide momentum towards implied 12.20
Turkish Lira: June Price Channel Top Towards 2.40
Extended January 2013 uptrend line backing the uptrend / breakout
Initial January 2.20 resistance zone now new support
Target still as high as 2.40 while 2.20 supports and RSI remains above neutral 50 versus 63 now