Below are a few para’s from legendary investor Seth Klarman that seem prescient to us with regards to some of our mining picks of late – ABG, KAZ, LMI and pretty much any gold miner you wish to mention…
When the market moves against you but you are firm in your fundamentals, it can be a lonely place to be. When one is spread betting or CFD trading, the key is to control the leverage in your position so that you can take another chomp at the bit if “Mr Market” offers the opportunity again (and this is what “Mr Ghoul” below fails to take into account with his vitroilic post.) – prime examples being the move in sterling over the last 2 months since we posited a bull stance (see blog here – http://www.spreadbetmagazine.com/blog/it-always-pays-to-buy-the-front-page-long-opportunity-right.html_
Only a small number of investors maintain the fortitude and client confidence to pursue long-term investment success even at the price of short-term underperformance. Most investors feel the hefty weight of short-term performance expectations, forcing them to take up marginal or highly speculative investments that we shun. When markets are rising, such investments may perform well, which means that our unwavering patience and discipline sometimes impairs our results and makes us appear overly cautious. The payoff from a risk-averse, long-term orientation is just that – long term. It is measurable only over the span of many years, over one or more market cycles.
Our willingness to invest amidst failing markets is the best way we know to build positions at great prices, but this strategy, too, can cause short-term underperformance. Buying as prices are falling can look stupid until sellers are exhausted and buyers who held back cannot effectively deploy capital except at much higher prices. Our resolve in holding cash balances—sometimes very large ones—absent compelling opportunity is another potential performance drag.
But we know that in a world in which being anti-fragile is good, what doesn’t kill you can make you stronger. Short-term underperforrnance doesn’t trouble us; indeed, because it is the price that must sometimes be paid for longer-term outperformance, it doesn’t even enter into our list of concerns. Patience and discipline can make you look foolishly out of touch until they make you look prudent and even prescient. Concentrating your portfolio in the most compelling opportunities and avoiding over diversification for its own sake may sometimes lead to short-term underperformance, but eventually it pays off in outperformance.
And for those interested in buying value down as it gest progressively cheaper in a sector that is as oversold as any seen in the last 20 years and offering compelling value, take a look at the guide below with our top picks and that yes, are a little cheaper now than when first suggested.