trading trenDs eod post

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2 mins. to read

So the Americans came back off holiday. Most news out today was as expected or a little better up until 3pm when we had the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI which came in under expectations.

I was watching the Dollar Index on FXCM as it was not looking very Bearish, which is what I wanted to see. My NZDUSD trade was teetering on the cusp of turning against me and at 3pm after the news came out I figured I’d sell if the SPX started to go down. Which it did.

S&P 500

In hindsight it was a tad early. I could have waited a few more hours and I could have probably risked a few more pips until tomorrow to see what the news on Friday does for the market but I figured that no one goes broke taking a profit and a lot of my other trades are in the money. I get quite nervous when I am in a good trade and I start to see candles like the ones today. So much indecision, it just feels like a 50/50 bet and that it could go either way. Usually when I take a winning trade off it goes in my original direction and vice versa when I stick to the rules and follow the strategy.  I was half tempted to start trailing the stop a little closer using the H4 chart swing lows, but there are a lot of them over the last couple of days and I would have got stopped out anyway.

On the whole though I am happy, I have banked some profits, the NZD/JPY continues to go in the right direction along with the, CAD/CHF and CAD/JPY . The USD/CAD had 1 winning entry and then I got stopped out pretty much straight away on the 2nd. But took a net profit of 6.4 pips.
If the Dollar Breaks above the trend line from the end of May 2012, the SPX is likely to put in a lower low and lower high tomorrow and then my target of 1400 will probably be out of the window. Maybe the news at 1.30 will be the catalyst… we shall have to wait and see.
DOLLAR INDEX
1:30pm USD

Non-Farm Employment Change
 
91K

69K

1:30pm USD

Unemployment Rate
 
8.2%

8.2%

Gulf Keystone would appear to have ended it’s blast off from the lows. A little retrace today, hardly undoing the last weeks rise but it shows that patience can get you in, without feeling like you are chasing the trade. I’m still waiting for a higher low to form.

 

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