day trade ideas – global markets overview – 28/08/13

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Emini S&P Sep13 headed lower as predicted to test the 100 day moving average & strong Fibonacci support at 1633/30 but we broke lower near the close & over night have hit 1626. This is quite a good Fibonacci support in a short term oversold market. We are in a 4 week down trend & only back above the 100 day moving average at 1634/36 looks less negative for the bears. We can then look for a selling opportunity at 1644/46. However a break below 1626 keeps the market under pressure for 1620/18 in the short term down trend. This is another important Fibonacci support & our best chance of a bounce today. There is further quite good support at 1611 but below here bulls need to throw in towel as we could collapse further to 1598/96.

 

Dax Sep13 broke late July lows at 8217/14 to reach 8190. Today we look for a test of Fibonacci & 100 day moving average support at 8155/50. This is our only chance of a bounce today it seems. Any longs need stops below 8130 as a break lower should fill the gap at 8100. Below here look for Fibonacci support at 8065/60. Again any longs need stops below 8045 for a move towards 8006, possibly 7991. Resistance at 8213/17 then 8231/37 but above 8247 look for 8262/65. If we reach as far as trend line resistance at 8280/89 use this as a selling opportunity with stops above 8315.

 

Euro Stoxx Sep13 broke the neckline to the head & shoulders at 2766 & as stated in our update: ‘‘This level is important as it is the neck line to a short term head & shoulders pattern building through August. A break lower today has a measured target of 2674 in the coming weeks.’’ We reached 2731 yesterday & have some support at 2727 but better support at 2718/15 & our only hope for a bounce today. With the 100 day moving average at 2709 this area is very important. A break lower therefore is significant & should test 2698/92 before our measured target of 2674 with 200 day moving average support at 2669. This offers a buying opportunity & a potential low for the correction. Resistance at 2751/53 then 2766/69 but above here could reach 2778/83.

 

FTSE Sep13 just breaking Fibonacci support at 6396 to target 6282/78. If we continue lower look for 6364 but we are establishing a down trend this month & therefore look likely to test August lows at 6346. We are looking oversold in the short term so a bounce from here is possible today. However a break lower meets good Fibonacci support at 6315/10 which should hold the downside at this stage. Resistance at 6414/16 but above here we may stretch as far as 6452/56 for a selling opportunity with stops above 6470.

 

Emini Dow Jones Sep13 headed lower as expected to break last week’s low at 14810/00. We are oversold short term but today’s outlook remains negative so watch for a break below 14744 to target 14714. If we continue lower we should see 14621/09 before 14527.Below here we should test June lows at 14474. Resistance at 14802/26 but above here look for a selling opportunity at 14900/20. Exit longs & try shorts with stops above 14745 as a break higher could target 14959/65 then 15030/35.


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