Perhaps on a purely intuitive basis, it could be said that with the Russia / Crimea / Ukraine situation, and additionally the Federal Reserve Tapering of QE that is underway, that the U.S. dollar should be “king of the castle” as far as the currency crosses are concerned. While this may indeed yet prove to be the case, especially as far as Dollar / Yen is concerned, we are in fact currently witnessing Dollar weakness in Europe against both Sterling and the single currency.
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Dollar / Yen: Support Above 100 Yen
200 day moving average at 100.26 underpinning the psychological 100 Yen level.
Overall rising July price channel based at 101.90 supporting the cross.
Bull flag either side of 103 could lead to 2013 resistance line projection target of 108.
Euro / Dollar: Fresh Strength Towards $1.40
$1.40 now regarded as a magnet for the price action and likely “minimum” upside target
2013 price channel target could be as high as $1.44
Support not seen lower than $1.38 if bull argument progresses as expected.
Sterling / Dollar: Strong Support Towards $1.65
2013 uptrend line combining with 50 day moving average at $1.6537
Last year’s price channel has implied target at $1.70 plus
Recent pullback from February’s $1.68 plus has unwound RSI indicator back to neutral “buying” zone.