Our world seems to be speeding up and getting less coherent. Probably it was always incoherent, but we were once led to believe that it was generally in good order and fit for purpose, to use the words of the urbane ‘home counties’ villain in the BBC’s Sunday night thriller The Night Manager. For example,…
The Chancellor appeared to be in a buoyant mood delivering his budget speech on Wednesday even though he noted that the global economy is weak and financial markets are turbulent. He reported a fast growing UK economy and lots of personal tax cuts. Indeed he emphasised that with 1% of the richest taxpayers contributing 28%…
Less than one week after the ECB signalled it would start purchasing investment-grade corporate bonds, bond issues are already going through the roof, as everyone is trying to front-run the ECB. From risk-free loans (through open market operations) to corporate loans (through investment-grade bond purchases), the ECB has come a long way in expanding its…
Albion Cathedral School, 16 March 2016 Dear Parent, We regret that George’s behaviour has been a cause for concern this term. This sixth former started out with great promise when he was appointed Cricket Club Treasurer. He assured us that he would reduce the overdraft by means of judicious economies, and that he…
A case study module in comparative economics for Trump University (deceased.) As imagined by Robert Sutherland Smith. George, Gideon Osborne of this parish is a dude that pursues bad economics; or so we are told by the famous Ernst and Young Item Club of economic forecasters. That is no exciting, left wing, “pinko” outfit but a…
There it is, European-QE, extended version, Part Two! Mario Draghi delighted investors yesterday with an extension of the current ECB asset purchase programme. Well…delighted them with the announcement, but as soon as he started speaking… It sometimes pays to keep your mouth shut. When the global economy is no longer able to provide enough magma…
Investing is not another science. It is not physics where actions can cause pre-determinable reactions. Some people would like to persuade you that it is; but they are wrong. If you wish to compare it to anything, it is more like tracking in a great wilderness of possibilities. There are fundamentals and market sentiment! Occasionally…
Switzerland is a great example of how it doesn’t matter all that much whether a country is a member of the EU or not, even when it deeply depends on trading with it. It is also shows that under such a scenario, it doesn’t really matter whether or not the country chooses to keep its…
While some are anxiously waiting for an expansion of the current European QE programme, others are praying for that not to happen. At this point, an expansion of QE and a further interest rate cut may act as dynamite for European banks and do little for investors. Banks stand to lose profitability if the European…
THE TRADITIONAL MACRO ECONOMIC MODELS OF THE WEST ARE SPLUTTERING. CAN ALL THE KING’S HORSES AND ALL THE KING’S MEN PUT THEM BACK TOGETHER AGAIN? Markets are such things as dreams are made of, to misquote the Bard. Much of the time, they seem full of apparent meaning (appearances, of course, often being deceptive) whilst…
